Study indicates to be Russia`s foe possibly to cost European elites USD1trn
(MENAFN) If the United States were to withdraw from NATO, European member states could face costs exceeding $1 trillion over the next 25 years to replace American military support, according to a new report by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The study highlights the financial and logistical burden that would fall on Europe in the event Washington shifts its strategic focus toward confronting China.
The report, released Thursday, comes amid growing calls within the EU to boost military spending and reduce reliance on U.S. defense capabilities, driven by fears of a potential Russian attack. While Western leaders argue that militarization is necessary to counter Moscow, Russia has denied posing a threat and accused NATO of exaggerating dangers to justify defense buildups.
IISS estimates that European NATO members—including the UK—would need to replace around 128,000 U.S. troops as well as extensive military infrastructure, especially in air and naval operations. The cost of substituting U.S. weapons systems alone is projected between $226 billion and $344 billion.
The report warns that European defense industries could struggle to meet demand due to challenges in funding, labor shortages, regulation, and supply chains. In some areas—like stealth aircraft and advanced rocket systems—Europe currently lacks sufficient production capability, possibly forcing outsourcing beyond NATO countries.
In addition to hardware, the study also points to critical gaps in leadership, intelligence, and command functions traditionally managed by the U.S., which would be difficult and expensive to replace.
The IISS questioned whether European leaders are prepared to commit the political and financial capital needed to match current U.S. contributions. This concern echoes criticism from former President Donald Trump’s administration, which accused European allies of underinvesting in defense while relying heavily on American protection.
The debate intensified on Thursday when German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul suggested raising Germany’s defense spending to 5% of GDP, a dramatic increase from the current 2.1%. The proposal sparked political backlash, prompting Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to clarify that a 3% target was more feasible and that the precise percentage was less important than overall readiness.
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