NASA projects asteroid more likely to strike moon than earth
(MENAFN) NASA has revised its projections for asteroid 2024 YR4, now indicating a higher probability of a lunar impact in 2032—though Earth remains safe from any threat.
Initially, the asteroid posed a slight risk of impacting Earth in 2032, but recent updates have lowered that probability to a mere 0.004%. Conversely, the chances of it striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, have more than doubled, increasing from 1.7% to 3.8%. This revised assessment is based on enhanced observations, including information gathered from the James Webb Space Telescope.
"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon," NASA clarified, adding that even a direct impact would not alter the Moon’s orbit.
Thanks to Webb’s infrared capabilities, scientists have narrowed the asteroid’s estimated size to between 53 and 67 meters—comparable to a 10-story building.
Since its discovery in December 2023 via a telescope in Chile’s desert, dozens of other space objects have flown closer to Earth than the Moon. While some smaller asteroids may have struck our planet or disintegrated in the atmosphere unnoticed, 2024 YR4 remains a rare case with a measurable—though still slim—lunar impact risk.
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